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It is very likely that as soon as we will start moving classes from core to the new core modules, the classes contained in the upgrade folder will be moved to core/ide. This will require change in the invocation of the UpgradeWizard as the invocation will probably remain in the "real" core. The IW should be invoked using reflection only if the UpgradeWizard class is on the classpath. This should result in the desired behavior, which is not to display the import wizard in case that no core/ide module is available.
If I remember correctly, this is already done including the move of the UgradeWizard classes into the core-ide.jar.