NetBeans Users Expect Linux Adoption of Java in 2007

Our recent poll asked six NetBeans experts to look ahead in 2007 and make predictions for NetBeans and the Java industry. The NetBeans community voted over a month and by a narrow margin decided that Jaroslav “Yarda” Tulach’s prediction was most likely to happen. His forecast, that Linux users would adopt Java as a result of last year’s open-sourcing, received 25% of the votes. Evangelist Gregg Sporar’s outlook on the growth of EJB3 and the Java Persistence API was a close second with 13 less votes. Do NetBeans evangelists know something most of us don’t? Another evangelist, Roman Strobl, received the third most votes with his prediction that NetBeans would see increased market share.

Results of the Poll:

25% — Linux community adopts Java (Jaroslav “Yarda” Tulach)

23% — EJB3 and the Java Persistence API gain momentum (Gregg Sporar)

18% — NetBeans market share will continue to grow (Roman Strobl)

15% — Java desktop APIs improve (Leonardo Galväo)

8% — NetBeans IDE's scripting support attracts new users (Geertjan Wielenga)

5% — Sun will strengthen its investments in open-source communities (Bruno Souza)

5% — Others

(Read the detailed predictions.)

Voters also had the option of casting ballots for their own forecast. A few entries touched on the after-effects of Java going open-source, while most anticipated a rise in the number of new and experienced developers using the NetBeans IDE. Submitted predictions included:

“With Visual Web Pack, NetBeans became an alternative to Visual Studio 2005. In the next version of NetBeans, it must be added full support of Ajax without updating from NetBeans updater.”

“Thanks to the NetBeans Platform Book, we will see an explosion of NetBeans Modules.”

“NetBeans will increase the productivity potential of many thousands of developers by recognizing the high priority need for, and implementing VIM (or VIM-like functionality) as an editor choice within the IDE.”

“Java overcomes current performance limitations due to open-source efforts.”

“As much as possible, some developers will develop their applications using the Ruby language because the Java language is becoming complex and ugly because of a lack of good language design philosophy.”

While the idea of a poll might suggest that there are correct answers and those that are less so, in an interview about the prediction poll Tulach thoughtfully pointed out that there were no right or wrong entries. And perhaps there is no better evidence of this than the recent “year in preview” article by popular tech blogger Elliotte Harold in which he expanded on many of the same points—Linux adoption of Java, increased NetBeans market share, and more—summed up by our NetBeans experts. Thus, an ideal assessment of the final results should not focus on perceived shortcomings of any of the six entries, but instead recognize what they have in common: a positive outlook for NetBeans and Java in 2007.

Thank you to our six NetBeans experts and all those who voted!

Interview with Jaroslav “Yarda” Tulach

Congratulations Yarda. Your prediction: “Linux community adopts Java” received the most votes.

Thank you. I am glad the voters found my prediction appealing, however the important part is to make the prediction really true. Then I'll be feeling really happy.

Let’s talk a bit more about your prediction. Have you started to notice any trends as a result of Java going open-source?

Not much happened since last fall (when Sun open-sourced hotspot, javac and javahelp), I guess people are mostly waiting for Sun to open-source the rest of the JDK. However we, here in NetBeans, are not just waiting. I am trying as hard as I can to create RPMs for NetBeans 6.0 so people using RPM-based Linux distribution can just install NetBeans using the most natural way they are used to. By the way, if anyone wants to help me in testing these packages, drop me an , please.

What did you think of the other forecasts in the survey?

I believe that everyone selected the most important event from area of own expertise. EJB3 is definitely going to gain momentum; scripting is likely to gain some attention, also due to improved NetBeans support. So it is just a matter of choosing absolute winner from all the "local" winners.

If your prediction turns out to be right, will you consider becoming a “Tech Psychic”?

No. If you look at Bruno's and Leonardo's predictions, they are almost the same as mine, that is why it seems there is no magic in predicting success of open-source Java. People who believe in open-source are generally convinced this is going to be big.

Your picture is rather unique. Can you tell us more about the sketch?

There is not much to say. Many years ago I was dating a painter....